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Cake day: June 9th, 2023

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  • The further in the future profits are, the less they are worth today. As in getting $1000 today is better, then getting a promise of being paid $1000 in a decade. After all if you got the $1000 today you could have invested it and got a return on it. So lets say you know you can get a return of a rate of 5%. The $1000 today invested over a decade would be $1000 * 1.0510 = $1628.89 in a decade. You can also use it the other way around, to estimate what the $1000 is worth in the future. As in X * 1.0510 = $1000 -> X =$613.91 That rate of return is called the discount rate.

    The issue with getting money in 50 years is that it ends up being nearly nothing today. So it is just a horrible idea.





  • The West is not united on the issue. The EU got a hard lesson from Russia, that fossil fuel dependence is a massive problem. So you see actually quite large investments into the green transition. This is building on some good progress earlier. Obviously Trump doing what he does scares the EU, which currently imports way too much LNG from the US to easily replace. There is push back from the fossil fuel industry, but the laws in place and general direction are good. It is too slow however.

    The US as the other large Western power went in the other direction. They elected Trump and currently work on blackmailing the world using oil. This year alone, they bombed Iran, moved a massive fleet towards Venezuela and used sanctions to destroy Russian oil exports. So the three largest oil producers, who deliver a lot of oil to China and are not some sort of vassal to the US.



  • There are two problems with that. First one is density. Even if you would ban cars, you still have some locations, where the distance is just too large to just cycle and public transit would basically end up like cars, if made available at the frequency required for a similar level of service to a car. The other part is building the actual cycling, sidewalk and transit networks. That again is going to take decades to do on the scale required to get rid of cars.

    It is much better to create working walking and cycling connections to nearby stores, add some mid or high density to low density areas to allow for trams, metros or trains and actually built those as well. Rome was not built in a day and to be honest is still very car brained.


  • It is just that there are cases where having a diesel generator to power your home is actually the best solution. Namely in very rural settings. Similar story with cars. For a very rural setting they and similar machines are actually a pretty great solution. They are fast, transport a lot and the infrastructure needed to run them between two places is relatively easy to built. Obviously there are also situations, where planes are the better solution.

    Cars become worse the more urban a place gets. However a lot of infrastructure is very car brained today and it is not going to be replaced overnight. So if you just ban cars, you create massive issues for a lot of people. Even if you do so in a small part of town, if you do not provide workable alternatives. As in a massive pedestrian zone in the city center is a huge problem for somebody living in a village close to the city and wants to go shopping. They have to have a way to get to the city center. Right now that probably means drive into the city and park somewhere, but otherwise you need something like public transport from the village or some train station next to a massive parking lot or something similar. Btw that is a problem, which is very common in France, due to them not having change municipality borders for ages. So stuff like trams rarely go to the outer parts of what by any reasonable standard the city.

    So the best way to deal with this is to think of getting rid of cars on some sort of scale. You move from one level rather then get rid of cars all together. Something like:

    1. Full car dependence. You absolutely need one for daily life
    2. Cars are needed for a good life, but there are rarer buses around and some sidewalks. You also somewhat can ride a bike for some trips, but you really do not want to.
    3. Cars are a good option for most trips. Some trips are better and easier using other forms of transport.
    4. Cars are an option, but not needed for daily life, but are sometime nice to have.
    5. Owning a car is just a waste of money. All realistic trips are easier using other forms of transport.