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Cake day: June 9th, 2023

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  • Never said that Trump supporters would switch sites. I said that Vance is less popular, which means less likely to get as many people to activly vote for him.

    A power vacuum in Iran would have a good chance of ending the civil war in Sudan. So I believe the odds are pretty good,especially if it is a short one.

    Every Iraeli and Palestinian has experienced violence from the other site. Clearly Israel is occupying the West Bank and not the other was around, but it would be foolish of me to presume that the Israeli left loves Palestinians. Thankfully they do not need to, but just need to make a deal. Without shooting at each other relations will improve. Obviously the right is independent of Natanyahu, but current polls still show them loosing power.



  • There are actually some differences here. After the Cold War ended Israel was making some peace deals. The Oslo Accords(1993 and 1995) and a deal with Jordan 1994 were big parts of that. In 1996 Netanyahu came to power and basically all of that stopped. There was a bit with Ariel Sharon being in power, when Israel gave up its settlement in the Gaza strip. Netanyahu was not prime minister all the time, but he was in government and more often then not in position to sabotage that. The only time he failed was Ariel Sharon ordering to close the Jewish settlements in Gaza. He is really the main reason there is no somewhat working two state solution today.

    Trump currently sents billions of aid to Israel to commit genocide AND fight a war within Iran. So yes he is that president. Biden at least used the US military to send some food to Gaza, Trump stopped that.

    Khamenei is the leader of Iran since 1989. He is hardly innocent of supporting the Assad clan, destroying democracy in Lebanon by supporting Hezbollah, massive war crimes in Sudan happening right now, with the biggest starvation crisis in the world, although not as hard as Gaza, the huge civil war in Yemen and so forth. Keep in mind that before the Iranian revolution Israel and Iran were very close allies. They even developed fighter jets together. Point is that both countries are not natural enemies.

    At least two of those men have formed their respective countries and systems for decades. If you killed Netanyahu today, then it would mean a new election and likely a win for the liberals, which is usually good news for Palastinians. If you killed Khamenei today, then there is a pretty good chance, that the infighting would end the Islamic Republic. Iran has had some massive protests in the last couple years. If you kill Trump, then the Vance ends up president and he lacks the charisma of Trump and is not even directly elected.




  • Oil is traded according to supply and demand. The big problem for the industry is that turning off a well reduces output and debt still has to be services making supply stable, but so is demand. That means small changes can have a massive impact. OPEC+ saying the would increase oil prices by 0.4% made oil prices fall by nearly 10%. Obviously lower demand even by a bit can have similar results.







  • and the nasty part with that is, that the only option to end Yemens strike on shipping by force, is to hit them on the ground before they can launch. The US tried to do that and then realized that they did not have enough ammounition to actually destroy the Yemenis. With Iran it is much worse and China invading Taiwan would be a similar problem, but on an even more massive scale.

    That is why the US has announced that they will protect US infrastructure in the region and not Israeli. That is not normal at all.