I feel really concerned for Latin Americans now, the whole restructuring the US military for that region makes me think that the US is going to ramp up their “interventions” in a region that has far too much of that already. Also the Europeans are definitely not happy about this one.

https://www.bfmtv.com/economie/entreprises/tout-s-est-inverse-les-pays-emergents-c-est-nous-la-france-en-quete-de-transferts-technologiques-venus-de-chine_AD-202512030116.html

“Everything has been turned upside down. We are the emerging countries. They are the developed countries. So we have to do to them what they did to us. We have to impose joint ventures and technology transfer,” argues Nicolas Dufourcq, CEO of the public investment bank Bpifrance, in an interview with AFP. (Translated)

It is honestly interesting to see neoliberalism being quietly thrown out the window, now that it’s shown to really be quite awful for actually building up a country. Now western countries are trying to emulate strategies that China figured out decades ago, albeit without the right ideological foundation beneath it. Really reminds me of Deng’s quote:

The superiority of the socialist system is demonstrated, in the final analysis, by faster and greater development of those forces than under the capitalist system.

And we are really beginning to see that here. Of course, actual socialist reforms will not come from bourgeois governments, and revolution is absolutely still needed, but Chinese socialism has already shattered the efficiency myth of neoliberalism, and I’m quite hopeful that eventually capitalism itself would be discredited.

The real inflation that’s going on

In Masala’s scenario, NATO’s failure to act over such a small incursion has big consequences.

Ah, time for Domino Theory V2, Russophobia edition.

The title seems a bit confusing. I believe that the Speciale model specifically does not support tool-calling, while the regular V3.2 is designed for Agentic work. I see you explained that in the description though, which is nice.

Anyway, it’s pretty hilarious that OpenAI just started to experiment with ads (apparently even on the paid tiers), right when they’re getting absolutely hammered by everyone else. Especially with Deepseek’s really cheap API that basically makes it very difficult for western companies to turn a profit.

Apparently they’re currently spending 6.3% of GDP on defense this year. In comparison, the US spent 9.4% during the height of the Vietnam war, the CIA estimates the USSR spent around 10-15% through the late 70s and 80s, and the Nazis spent 25% in 1939 and 75% in 1944.

I haven’t really done a rigorous check on these numbers, and all of them are from western sources so take them with as much salt as you’d like, but it’s pretty clear Russia is still far from a true war economy and have significant room to ramp up further if they decide they need to. Also, they have a large trade surplus with both China and India, so they have a consistent source of revenue.

https://archive.is/Bqlf0

The difficult solution is to become more competitive and find new sources of value, as the US does with its technology industry. That means more reform, less welfare and less regulation: not because welfare and regulation are bad per se, but because they are unaffordable given the competition.

It is now increasingly hard to see how Europe, in particular, can avoid large-scale protection if it is to retain any industry at all.

So the plan is to wreck your welfare policies with neoliberal-style austerity… then also violate neoliberal principles through protectionism? This isn’t just following a bad plan, this is following no plan. Also, I really don’t see how deliberately making your workforce poorer and less educated will somehow produce ‘new sources of value’.

This is also assuming that OpenAI can capture the entire market of consumer AI, AKA having no significant competitors anywhere in the world, which… uh… doesn’t look likely.

Does it feel like the Economist is genuinely scared of China’s development these days? They’ve been pumping out a lot of articles about the progress China’s making, when they used to be one of the spearheads of the ‘Collapsing China’ narrative.

Anecdotally I do feel like there is, to a degree, more of a pro-China undercurrent to mainstream-ish discourse than there was before. Outright celebration and respect of China and the accomplishments of their people is still rare, but I’m seeing a lot of “Well, at least they’re doing [insert X] better than us.” Even if they just have to add a “But authoritarian!” somewhere.

I think there’s both a push and pull effect, Trump is an obvious push factor, but there is also a rising disillusionment of western governments’ ability to deliver a better future for their people. The pull factors meanwhile are China’s visible achievements in building a prosperous society, and the rise in Chinese cultural exports like video games, movies, and technology.

The main challenge for us is to maintain this sentiment after the Democrats take over and the liberals all fall in line. I think that emphasising what China does well, not just what China does better than Trump, is a good start. We need to erode the omnipresent idea that only liberal electoral systems can produce good outcomes for their people, and China makes it pretty easy for us to point to as a counterexample.

It’s really annoying to me because there are probably genuine economic headwinds in China, just as there are in most economies these days, but even at its worst it’s doing better than most western countries, and no one is predicting they would suddenly collapse. Everything that happens in China is put under a microscope and magnified as a big problem regardless of whether it is, or even if it’s a good thing.

This makes it very difficult for me tell what is a genuine problem and what is just misinformation. All I can say is that a country that produces most of the things they need and other countries like to buy is probably in a decent spot.

Time to paste your favorite piece of Marxist theory and email it back and forth to brainwash their AI.

As someone who has been following solar energy recently, it truly keeps me hopeful about the future of our planet and the Global South. Looking at China’s solar PV exports, you can see that the total value of exports has actually been dropping since May 2023, but the amount being sold has just kept increasing. This means that the cost of solar is dropping basically month over month, to the point where individuals in Pakistan, Myanmar, and Afghanistan have all suddenly gained the power to control their energy supply for the first time ever.

From a broader perspective, Solar is the fastest growing energy source by far, and is the reason why the COP28 renewables tripling goal is still plausible. It also ruins the profit model of oil imperialists who chain struggling countries to buy their fossil fuels every month. Now that even battery costs are plummeting and stuff is increasingly being electrified, I actually think we have a fighting chance of saving our climate.

Karpathy definitely knows what he’s talking about, his GPT from scratch video is pretty good. His explanation here really resonates with how current models can be so good at many difficult tasks while still struggling a lot with basic things. I think there definitely needs to be a few breakthroughs more before we could discuss whether actual AGI can be reached.

I think those are fairly reasonable assumptions, given how Trump’s flailing never seems to get anywhere with China and that exports are on an upward trend towards most markets, including many of the fastest growing regions. The big question for me is whether those other markets will also ramp up protectionism, in which case all bets are off.

If the dispute drags on, a drop in Chinese visitors, such as the fall of roughly 25% seen during an island dispute in 2012, could deliver a significant economic hit for Japan, said Takahide Kiuchi, executive economist at Nomura Research Institute.

Worries about such a hit caused a dip in tourism-sensitive shares in Tokyo, with department store operator Isetan Mitsukoshi falling 11.3%, while Japan Airlines gave up 3.7%.

Yeah, the Japanese corpos probably got annoyed and yanked her leash a bit. Bourgeois dictatorship remains a bourgeois dictatorship.

Clearly, the best way to support tech long term is to improve educational standards, provide equal opportunities to students all across the country, foster scientific curiosity, expand sustainable energy infrastructure, and invest in the pure sciences. So that’s what you’re going to do, right?

…right?

I’ve read the report and the data is pretty interesting, the US and Europe have actually increased carbon emissions this year, but it was offset by decreases mostly in China and India. India’s reduction is considered an outlier because of an unusually cool summer, but China may have already crossed peak fossil energy.

Here’s the report if you’d like to read it: https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/q3-global-power-report-no-fossil-fuel-growth-expected-in-2025/

The funny thing is, “perfect competition” in neoclassical economics is considered to be the most efficient system, as it theoretically allocates resources most efficiently (if you ignore externalities), and provides the lowest price for consumers. The end result is also that companies produce zero net profit. So any western economist should look at this and approve, right?

It’s honestly kind of absurd that direct military intervention in another country’s civil war is considered not only normal but heroic. Nevermind the horrific track record of US military interventions in general.