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Cake day: July 5th, 2023

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  • An attack that damages oil infra that reduces oil supply will immediately result in oil price increases. It doesn’t even have to materially affect the supply yet for the prices to react. It doesn’t matter who conducts the attack either. The prices at the pump in the US will follow shortly after. I think I heard the estimate is 5%. Then corpos will raise prices because “oil went up by 5%” and you have inflation in an election period following a period of high inflation that Democrats just managed to get down. Trump will frame it as geopolitical and economic mismanagement. This could tip the scales in a close election enough for it to go to Trump.

    Then there’s the possibility of retaliatory attacks on tankers in the Red Sea. There’s another 5-10% expected from that.

    None of this mechanism depends on US army’s involvement in the conflict.




  • “Our former model is over. We are overregulating and underinvesting. In the two to three years to come, if we follow our classical agenda, we will be out of the market,”

    Overregulating, no. Regulation almost always protects people from harm. We don’t need to harm people more to get better economic results.

    Underinvesting, absolutely. The EU’s self-imposed austerity keeps preventing increased public investment. As a sovereign currency issuer the EU can do a lot more public investment in any area that has underutilized resources. A shift away from neoliberal and towards Keynesian economic policies.

    adding that looking at gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in the past three decades the U.S. delivered an increase of 60 percent, Europe only delivered 30 percent.

    Keep looking at metrics that don’t tell you what you need to know and you’re gonna keep making the wrong conclusions. GDP isn’t a metric of how people are doing which is what matters and Europeans are doing significantly better than the US for a unit of GDP for multiple reasons.

    “And it’s not sustainable with the social model that we have,” he added.

    Doubt.

    “If we want clearly to be more competitive and have our place in this multipolar order first we need a simplification shock,” Macron said.

    Just waiting for the other shoe called “therapy” to drop.


  • I can’t see Israel not accelerating towards fascism and repression after the last year. But I wouldn’t ascribe this to Hamas planning because they haven’t shown themselves to be that strategic or intelligent.

    E: Anyone looking at this comment funny should look at the latest polls in Israel. Specifically the popularity of right wing and settler nationaltst parties. Also look at the opinions about the war among Israeli Jews and non-Jews. Finally look at recent polls about right/left lean and compare it to older ones. Then think how things are gonna go in the aftermath when a minority raises this issue while the majority has to keep up the belief that the deaths are a lie and if they aren’t they were unavoidable, and if they weren’t unavailable they’d become terrorists anyway.