that tally is wildly optimistic. last time i’ve checked, one of latest strikes, the one on kirishi, disabled some 30% of capacity (it’s too big of facility to have only one oil processing stream, so there are two in parallel. the one disabled had a bit under half of capacity, and the other one is using all slack capacity it had) and only for a month or two. some of strikes listed are from year+ ago
even with that, some 20% of oil processing capability is disabled (or was at some point), and further decrease would mean that decline in oil extraction is needed because export of crude and storage can’t keep up. which means that some oil wells would get disused, and if these are down for some time they can’t get restarted easily
Do you mean the equipment will take time to set back up? Oil wells actually produce a bit better for a while after they sit, because pressure gradients slowly equalize.
in 90s, russian oil production dropped by almost half, and rebuilding that output took some 20 years. i thought it was because when you stop using oil well, all these sediments settle and over time it becomes harder to draw oil from it. or was it all undermaintained and they just capped a bunch of wells back then?
that tally is wildly optimistic. last time i’ve checked, one of latest strikes, the one on kirishi, disabled some 30% of capacity (it’s too big of facility to have only one oil processing stream, so there are two in parallel. the one disabled had a bit under half of capacity, and the other one is using all slack capacity it had) and only for a month or two. some of strikes listed are from year+ ago
even with that, some 20% of oil processing capability is disabled (or was at some point), and further decrease would mean that decline in oil extraction is needed because export of crude and storage can’t keep up. which means that some oil wells would get disused, and if these are down for some time they can’t get restarted easily
update: salavat refinery was hit like, 2h ago
Great context addition to the graphic!
There is a little bit of fine print about that if you look closely.
yeah, that’s the wildly optimistic bit
Do you mean the equipment will take time to set back up? Oil wells actually produce a bit better for a while after they sit, because pressure gradients slowly equalize.
in 90s, russian oil production dropped by almost half, and rebuilding that output took some 20 years. i thought it was because when you stop using oil well, all these sediments settle and over time it becomes harder to draw oil from it. or was it all undermaintained and they just capped a bunch of wells back then?