I don’t think we should cheerlead a mad max united states or its collapse. That would create an extraordinarily dangerous situation for the entire planet. I think instead what we’ll see is a decline in global power projection and in the dollar. It’s going to be an incredibly painful situation in america as a result. So much consumption is built-in because of car culture and how spread-out and unwell the population is. Having a sharp decrease in living standards would condemn a vast majority of the country into poverty, and they will basically be forced to move to cities. So I think you’ll see some kind of eventual re-industrialization with these formerly middle-class suburbanites now living in rough urban conditions. The rich will probably see some kind of managed decline - sell the cape cod house, no european vacations, etc. There is a trend towards rich dense villages in the suburbs that will accelerate. So ultimately I think it will look like rich people kind of clinging on in their wealthy village centers trying to hang on to their lifestyles, and urban areas of huddled masses desperately trying to build some kind of real economic base. As for rural areas, I do think things could get violent and there could be insurgencies of MAGA-type people trying to bottom-up rebuild their country. I’m especially worried about how white supremacy will play into this, Tulsa style, since we’ve seen how bad this is during times of relative prosperity.
I mean, this is just one guy’s perspective. But pretty much no matter how you cut it, a transition to a multipolar world is going to be a rough ride for america. Eventually, it will be good in that there will be a more balanced economy with a reasonable trade and fiscal deficit, less dependent on services. The question is whether that transition will be so painful as to create a Weimar-esque environment and the world has to deal with a nuclear yankee reich. However, I think this is an extreme scenario, since there would be substantial domestic pushback. Or at least I’d like to think…
There wasn’t much pushback the last time we used nukes, and most Americans will defend those uses of nukes as necessary when they weren’t. Given the fate of the black lives matter movement and the average American’s position on the US’s brinkmanship with Russia via the war in Ukraine, I am not optimistic about domestic resistance to a nuclear yankee reich.
I don’t think we should cheerlead a mad max united states or its collapse. That would create an extraordinarily dangerous situation for the entire planet. I think instead what we’ll see is a decline in global power projection and in the dollar. It’s going to be an incredibly painful situation in america as a result. So much consumption is built-in because of car culture and how spread-out and unwell the population is. Having a sharp decrease in living standards would condemn a vast majority of the country into poverty, and they will basically be forced to move to cities. So I think you’ll see some kind of eventual re-industrialization with these formerly middle-class suburbanites now living in rough urban conditions. The rich will probably see some kind of managed decline - sell the cape cod house, no european vacations, etc. There is a trend towards rich dense villages in the suburbs that will accelerate. So ultimately I think it will look like rich people kind of clinging on in their wealthy village centers trying to hang on to their lifestyles, and urban areas of huddled masses desperately trying to build some kind of real economic base. As for rural areas, I do think things could get violent and there could be insurgencies of MAGA-type people trying to bottom-up rebuild their country. I’m especially worried about how white supremacy will play into this, Tulsa style, since we’ve seen how bad this is during times of relative prosperity.
I mean, this is just one guy’s perspective. But pretty much no matter how you cut it, a transition to a multipolar world is going to be a rough ride for america. Eventually, it will be good in that there will be a more balanced economy with a reasonable trade and fiscal deficit, less dependent on services. The question is whether that transition will be so painful as to create a Weimar-esque environment and the world has to deal with a nuclear yankee reich. However, I think this is an extreme scenario, since there would be substantial domestic pushback. Or at least I’d like to think…
There wasn’t much pushback the last time we used nukes, and most Americans will defend those uses of nukes as necessary when they weren’t. Given the fate of the black lives matter movement and the average American’s position on the US’s brinkmanship with Russia via the war in Ukraine, I am not optimistic about domestic resistance to a nuclear yankee reich.
🤔