Whereas previous economic shocks such as the oil crisis of 1973 caused a temporary dip in fertility, the 2007-2008 banking meltdown was different because birth rates continued to decline even after the economy started growing again, says to Daniele Vignoli, professor of demography at the University of Florence in Italy. He believes the turbulence a decade and a half ago marks the point at which people’s uncertainty about the future began to take hold.
I see this society as a pyramid scheme and as a young worker, I‘m somewhere near the bottom. I‘m supposed to be grateful cause others are further down and I‘m supposed to bring in more bottom dwellers to serve those above, but I refuse. Let it collapse for all I care.
Good enough of an explanation, or do I need to go into detail how much these too small apartments and mediocre food products cost?
I’m pretty torn on this. On one hand you are right, the current demographics mean, fewer yougn people have to provide for a lot of older people, at least realtively speaking. Te ratio between these groups has seldomly (never?) been this bad. This does mean we do not have the money to build out or even maintain the infrastructure, education, basically everything the generation after us will badly need.
On the other hand by not having enough children to at least have a better ratio, the generation after us will be in the exact same situation as we are, or even a worse one. So they are pretty much fucked anyways, but by at least maintaining population the generation after that might be able to do better?
That‘s why I call it a pyramid scheme lmao, you need to recruit more people into it to keep it going basically. That or take money and resources from the top of the pyramid, which I doubt will happen and if it does probably not without a lot of violence like in communist revolutions, which usually comes along with more fascism too, bad times. So I won‘t recruit anyone to this mess myself, but if you want to do that to your descendants to help out the system, go ahead.
Maybe the lack of my descendants can make the labour of others worth a bit more overall, or they get screwed by climate change anyway, since this pyramid can‘t grow forever without exhausting the planet‘s resources. Either way, I sleep well knowing I won‘t drag any more people into it.
My point was, that by just existing you will be a burden upon the next generation when you are old. The only way of making this easier on the next generation is by spreading your own weight on more shoulders aka having more kids. We got screwed by the boomers because they stopped having as many kids, an by a large margin at that. But I get your point, if my imaginary teenager would ask me “Why did you even put me in this hellhole” I’d have no good answer for them.
Oh, I misunderstood sorry. Well I don‘t have any qualms about that either, if the society don‘t want to sustain me anymore I don‘t mind dying earlier, they can give me euthanasia if it‘s such a huge issue. I‘m honestly over this implied duty I‘m supposed to feel to sustain this scheme, let‘s just be glad I‘m channeling all my disdain for it into useless social media rants, while still following most of it‘s rules and duties as best I can anyway.
The one implied duty I simply won‘t follow is the one about dragging anyone into existence, if procreation were mandatory I‘d rather go to prison instead, that is how protective I feel of my non-existent kids.
I guess that’s a fair point to argue. I personally don’t think I have the strength to just off myself when I start becoming a burden though
Me neither, but if my body hurts and I‘d have euthanasia I would welcome it. I just saw a lot of suffering from my parents and grandparents before their deaths, so that is usually where my mind goes when discussing the topic.
I know it is pretty bleak and pessimist in my head and I already deleted another comment cause I think I‘m maybe getting too personal about myself now. I do hope everyone has as nice and painless of an existence as is possible. Let‘s leave it at that.
I like to disagree. There are other ways than to continue that pyramid scheme (which you do state as the “only way”). We could work on getting rid of “unnecessary stuff” and focus with the workers we have on the necessary. E.g. Traveling via plane or cruise ship or buying a new phone every year, a bigger tv every two and gigantic cars could be stopped. Let’s keep phones for 7 years, make vacation in our own region, country, by train, share cars. That could free a lot of working hours used to manufacture that stuff to put into the more needed professions like infrastructure maintenance and care work. Will that happen? I don’t think so…
That is true, we could be doing a lot to provide a better starting point for our following generation besides just making them a bigger generation.
Will that happen? I don’t think so…
But I also agree with you here, so I resorted to argue for a somewhat realistic scenario.
Also it does not contradict my point of it being better to spread out your own weight on more shoulders, rather than few. That would still be valid if we did change our productivity towards more socially beneficial projects.
I am often surprised by so much pessimism of people in Western Europe. There are of course big problems, but if taken seriously, can they not be addressed? I do not deny that many people have reasons to be pessimistic, but maybe the cause is more lack of ideas for building better future. So much was achieved, in art, science, technology, reflecting in high quality of life, how can this be seen as a hellhole?
I am aware that this is complaining on a very high standard. My life is and probably will be quite comfortable relative to the lifes of others that were less fortunate in the birth-lottery.
But to explain a little more: I am in my mid-twenties. In my lifetime I have seen (arguably tainted by a LOT of childhood nostalgia) a pretty nice world. Then, when I became more concient about politics shit started happening:
- The arab spring happened, and now pretty much nothing is left from it
- The climate movement started really picking up, with some results but not really enough (because of economic interests, this will be a common theme)
- The system we use in germany to provide for older people is a generational treaty. The money I pay now is not going towards my own pensions it is paying the pensions of current old people. The system worked as long as each generation produced a similarly sized next generation or even a bigger generation. This has NOT been the case for boomers, which did produce comparatively small generation to provide for them
- America, the land of freedom has become a place that from the outside seems to be very far removed from the glorious tales that I have been told in my childhood. Realizing shit isn’t golden is part of growing up but this is a pretty stark contrast. It’s especially relevant because the trends from america seem to be mirrored in germany with a few years delay. Which does not improve my hopes for the immediate future.
- The far right has started lift its head here in germany again and I don’t think we’ll get this problem under control soon. While the other parties are not (mostly) working with them, it is still paralyzing the democratic system a bit as they force bigger/more diverse coalitions of parties which makes everything slower an more compromises have to be made. I fear the day, the conservatives break and join forces with them.
- Of course the financial crisis in 2007 and corona a decade later meant that times have never been in a steady upwards trend in my lifetime which doesn’t really help. The divide between poor and rich has become wider and wider as far as I can remember, and the poor have become more in numbers. While I am lucky enough to be on the privileged side of this issue for now it does very much not bode well for the future. No society can sustain itself by living off the poor peoples backs for long. Especially when the social and financial mobility in the society is as low as it is in germany.
There are of course big problems, but if taken seriously, can they not be addressed?
Of course a lot of this are problems that COULD be dealt with. But a big part of society seems to vote for parties that want to maintain most of the status quo. So while ‘hellhole’ is a overstatement (but one that a teenager might very well make ;)) I don’t see a lot of improvement coming.
I think, very broadly, climate change can be tackled by collective action or/and technologies which make climate-friendly action economically favorable. There was a lot of progress recently on the second part, including sizable contribution of Germany: rapidly growing contribution of renewables, electric transport, better heating and insulation, etc? I think good people putting themself to work on an important goal can achieve a lot for common good, I see this a lot in my area of research and technology. I realize there is a danger of thinking “technology will solve all” and relaxing, but what I am saying that it’s part of the solution, and at least a cause for some optimism fueling further action. Furthermore, I see that as Europe gained a privileged position due to historical circumstances, it is its moral duty to leverage this position for helping to advance the necessary technologies.
For the first part it’s harder since there is no consensus but I suspect this will be facilitated by progress in technology (yet, it’s important to work on consensus). Also I see that some understanding of the need to act is increasing in the Western Europe population, is it not?
Maybe part of the challenge with US, Arab spring, and far right, is that after the fall of Soviet Union there was too much confidence in neoliberal system automatically bringing democracy, prosperity, and fairness everywhere. While delivering democracy as a gift of historic process is somehow antithetic to the idea of democracy, which implies active agency, individual and collective action. People grew complacent assuming that all gets solved for them by the market, and politics became sometimes a dirty word. Instead, it’d be better if people continued to practice political discourse about tough questions in respectable but honest way. But now it is becoming next to impossible to avoid engagement, which makes some people loose any hope, some turn to fascism, and some searching for a better solution. I think the last, better, way is not yet lost.
Technology development itself raises further difficult political questions, about ownership of new tools deriving from commons (like LLM AI), viability of common space in privately managed companies (social networks), and so on. People need to be engaged in this else the decisions will be made for them and not in their interest (even if their consent may be sometimes formally acquired following some misleading campaign).
This potential for action, and recent history of progress, in two related directions, technology and political agency, seems to be the cause for optimism. Even raise of fascism, as worrying as it is, indicates that people are striving for change, they just do not see a better option since it is not sufficiently developed and communicated to them yet.
Maybe I went a bit overboard with my post above, I do have some optimism but I wanted to explain why there is a big tendency to be pessimistic.
I realize there is a danger of thinking “technology will solve all” and relaxing, but what I am saying that it’s part of the solution, and at least a cause for some optimism fueling further action.
Oh I am definitely not at the doomer stage. I do think that we will be able to limit the heating of the climate to something of the effect of 2,x Kelvin. That’s pretty shitty though and will still cause a lot of global change. I do agree, we likely will have even better ways in the future. What annoys me is that we have technology right now that would be way better than oil/gas based systems for heating houses and driving vehicles. We just managed to make the people poor enough so they can’t afford the higher fixed costs, so they will be locked out of enjoying the lower variable costs. (Which means we will have to subsidize them which means political debates with compromises that will probably be met half-ways between the green and liberal party currently in control, which will probably satisfy none really)
Also I see that some understanding of the need to act is increasing in the Western Europe population, is it not?
Yes, but very very slowly. That’s because there are two blocks left unconvinced:
- People that just flat out deny climate changes is human based, or claim that it will not affect us germans in a meaningful way. These are relatively few but still substantial. Somewhere between 10 and 20% in Germany.
- People who prioritize in a shorter timeframe. A lot of people have to think about today and tomorrow just to get by. They hear that the changes needed to protect the climate will make some things even more expensive, or just more inconvenient and do not want that because they think they won’t be able to handle the additional burden. These are a lot more than the first group.
We also see that while a lot of people (around 65%) claim that they support the climate protection movement in general acceptance of specific laws is always way lower. Meaning that they have not fully realized that to protect the climate we need to actually change some things, and sometimes dramatically so.
Technology development itself raises further difficult political questions, about ownership of new tools deriving from commons (like LLM AI), viability of common space in privately managed companies (social networks), and so on. People need to be engaged in this else the decisions will be made for them and not in their interest (even if their consent may be sometimes formally acquired following some misleading campaign).
This potential for action, and recent history of progress, in two related directions, technology and political agency, seems to be the cause for optimism.
For that to be a cause for optimism would require me believing that we as a people will want to and be able to seize that potential for action. Which I seriously doubt at least for germany.
Even raise of fascism, as worrying as it is, indicates that people are striving for change, they just do not see a better option since it is not sufficiently developed and communicated to them yet.
The reason driving a lot people towards conservatives and even the fascist parties in germany is their promise of “getting back to the good old days” which the conservatives are actually currently failing to communicate well because they have a elected a leadership that is pretty market liberal which makes the party currently a weird economically liberal and socially conservative amalgam which do not always go well together. Compared to that the AfD is publicly still putting up the charade of keeping and upholding the “good old values” while getting more and more obviously racist and fascist. Both these developments additionally to a lot of people who, out of protest against the last and the current government, vote for them to make a statement, have made them poll at more than 20% with no tendency of stopping.
So no, I don’t think people turn to fascism for change, at least not here. They turn to fascism because of the promis of keeping everything as it is or even go back a few steps.
deleted by creator
You will, however, presumably, rely on social care supported by less and less working people, potentially leading to very unfortunate choices made by these people. Or do you prefer not to retire?
I don‘t know what I‘ll do in 35~ years, but if it‘s still a thing by then, then sure I will take advantage of it, I paid into it all my working life after all. I also try to save a bit, but inflation eats all of it up anyway probably.
If the young people don‘t want to sustain this and it gets repealed, I guess I will work until I am unable. If I became unable, I hope they at least provide me with euthanasia or otherwise I guess I’d have to haunt the streets as a homeless spectre to scare them into making the rich richer. Tough choices! Maybe I get lucky and die of cancer in my 40s like my parents instead.
You paid into sustaining social contract between generations, and you are also making it more difficult to continue sustaining it. It’s commendable and honest that you are willing to forgo what is attributed to you in this contract and it is your right of course. I just think that a better, more inspiring, future exists.
Because the economy growing didn’t mean people got wealthier. This time the capitol owners took all the benefits for themselves driving mass inequality and the end result is most people getting much poorer.
Economy growth without more equal benefits isn’t useful to most people. The people are still in recession.
Yep. We’re in the actual late stage capitalism — the majority of politicians are full-blown corporate sociopaths bought and paid for by the wealthy; so much so that most of them don’t even attempt to act competent anymore. “competition” is 1/10th what is was decades ago due to corporate expansion and consolidation/acquisition. Greedflation is extracting whatever value remains from the collapse of the middle class. Economic mobility has been destroyed across the developed world from decades of neoliberalism. Wealth inequality is higher than it was during the Great Depression, and the opportunity to own a home or provide for a family is non-viable without a significant reduction in quality of life/standard of living for the first time in at least a century. Automation and AI are rapidly advancing to completely devalue/replace human labor. There is a near scientific certainty that climate change will cause ecosystems and agriculture to collapse around the world, and billions to starve, sometime in the next 20-50 years.
If anyone wonders why people are not having in kids in 2023, I auto-assume they’re a complete simpleton dumb cunt or suffering dementia.
Capitol owners is quite a good pun.
The world is burning, wars are raging, microplastics in our bodies, fascist are gaining power, depression is a staple for internet culture.
I don’t know what it could be. /s
Also houses. No space, no kids.
all i can afford is a 2 room apartment. Not 2 bedroom. 2 room. Where am I supposed to put a kid?
Put it in the closet under the stairs like in Harry Potter. Oh wait, stairs are a luxury now too. Bathtub maybe? I only have a shower, but some people still have bathtubs right?
Fascists are gaining power because the left could not offer a viable response to the majority concerns. And it sounds like what’s left of it is just giving up unfortunately.
Fascists are gaining power because they are put there by radicalizing conservatives and businesses in particular media businesses consolidating their power and happily pushing fascist propaganda to sow divide among poor people. Also it distracts from the perpetuators of problems, by giving scapegoats.
The left has plenty viable responses. It is just that they cannot lie about the world changing and requiring to adapt. Something fascists and their conservative enablers happily lie about and the worse it gets the more they brainwash people into blaming the left, the green, the immigrants, the jews, anybody but the businesses and politicians destroying the world for some more profit.
What you are saying is not wrong, but it can also be true that the left is quite divided and lacks a narrative which can be convincing to the same working class the left aims to empower. In fact, the left got quite disconnected from the working class on a number of issues. The lie may be easier to make convincing, but the truth has some advantages too. In fact, some talking points of the right, like the anti-elite sentiment, are straight out of the left playbook. Why did the left not manage to deliver this point better?
You know that passing wish for the future to come as a kid when you first saw a cyberpunk movie or show?
The cyberpunk future is here
The cyberpunk future is here
The term “boring dystopia” is a very apt description.
All of thr dystopia, none of the cool tech or aesthetics. Where’s the bands of cyborg augmented jacked-in cyberpunks on hoverbikes? Where’s the holograms and cyberdecks and the Net? Where’s the robotic power armor and edgy neon and sleek titanium and carbon fiber? If we’re gonna go full dystopia at least give us the aestherics for crying out loud!
Dude, think about it for a moment. Even if they come up with all that cool stuff, are you sure you wanna plug that shit into your body?
It’s hilarious how I grew up loving cyberpunk like Ghost in the Shell. Thought I’d want to be a cool cyborg. Nope, I’m like Togusa, the dude with no cybernetics and refusing to get any.
B-but holograms though.
Nah I get it, I wouldn’t plug corpo augs and decks into myself either. But you’ll recall that in the stories, the punks also just made their own, 3d printed or cracked and rooted, running self-made FOSS they downloaded from the Net. We’re kinda living that future with Linux, F-droid, 3d printers and all the rest, but still, none of the aesthetics. No holograms or hoverbikes makes me sad.
running self-made FOSS they downloaded from the Net.
That’s just a different flavour of yolo. All fun and games until you break the firmware for your bowel functions.
“A small price to pay for
salvationcyborg augs” - the cyborg in the middle of disassembling their abdomen, maybeI still want my off the shelf holograms, EMP grenades and pulse rifles and hoverbike tho.
I love the aesthetics and all too, but I wouldn‘t do it. Imagine the ads and shit they would download into you, then you probably need a subscription for every little thing and all of it’s going to be focused at making people better work tools. I‘m good. Though I fear when everyone else has it, others might need to have it too to keep up in the labour market or be seen as Luddites, like how everyone has a smartphone now. I can only hope I‘m dead by then.
On that note: Compare the total fertility rate in the nordic countries:
to the personal income inequality in the nordic countries:
See how the dip inincome inequality around 1990 for Norway and Sweden is associated with a maximum in fertility. Similary, like peaks of inequality around the late 90’s correspond to minima in fertility.
So like Japan?
Who did the economy recover for?
Yeah, even if inflation stays steady at 2.5 percent, the value of your money halves in the span of 25 years. Wages are locked in harder than my phone to my WiFi when I leave the house and politicians be like: “Why won’t people procreate anymore?” If any if them had an experience outside the 10% of which they are part, they’d be signing a UBI law over night
No more meat for the machine.
We got bread and circuses for cheap by way of chinese workers who reduced inflation for consumer items that made us feel like we were still properous, when in fact the opposite was happening.
All over the world we are seeing what happens after the boom
there’s ten billion people in the world. If you haven’t noticed, we’re kinda ok, cancer-inspired natalists.
But think of the economy. Where will we be if we do not have more people than open positions in companies? Then companies can no longer pick the highest talent for low pay and they will loose money. And given the trickle down effect, you will also have less!
I really hope I do not need to add /s
But those people are being born in other countries. If we want to have more people here, we would have to allow foreigners to come here!
/s
