Really annoyed me that the kiddos voted to not switch, and they got the car. Getting children to understand that 1/3 is smaller than 1/2 is hard enough. I’m going to program my own evil version that only wins on switch the first time next time I do this.
I don’t care to look it up, cause that ain’t the point of social media. What is the Monty Hall problem?
3 doors.
1 is a car. 2 are goats.
Contestant picks a door. The host then shows one of the remaining doors containing a goat, then asks if you want to change your door.
What do you do?
Here’s the sim I used if you want to check it out!
That’s a fun sim!
Lol! I played 12 times in a row, and always stayed. I got the car 6 times (not in a row). I know that it’s supposed to be a 1/3 vs 2/3 probability, but it sure does seem like 50/50 in the long run.
It’s not, it approaches 1/3.
12 isn’t quite enough goes to get a good approximation.
Oh, I know…but I played another 5 rounds afterwards and now I’m ahead by 2 on cars. I think I should buy a lottery ticket on my way home tonight. I’m shittin’ clovers right now. Lol!
I managed to get 3 wins and 17 losses by staying lol. I’ll hold off on those lottery tickets.
It was hard to picture looking at it in one direction for me as a kid, but after thinking about it for about 15 minutes I looked at it from the “opposite view” and for some reason it clicked. (Not from the players view, but rather the hosts view)
They give you the chance to open a door 1/3. Then ask if you would like to change after opening another door to show a goat. Your first thought is that, well it’s a 50-50 chance the last door is the prize because there are only 2 left. so what would it matter, but really it is 2/3. As your chances of being right were 1/3 originally, and he knows where the car is, and has to eliminate one of the doors you don’t have. Making it so now 2/3 of the options are out if you choose a new door, or it stays at 1/3 if you stay the same. So you say “thank you for the extra 33% chance at winning” and always change to the second door
When the first door is revealed, obviously the probabilities are unchanged. The almighty protagonist of human exceptionalism must choose the path to alter the winds of the fates. Pray the great Apollo smiles upon thy being. For speaking the word “same” is to alter the universe of satyr sophistry.
Thanks I wasn’t sure if I understood it right.
I tried 25 times with staying
And 25 times with switching
Switching gave me a winning rate of 76% and was like “hmm… If I understand it the right way the chances are bigger if I switch right?”