USA is not with Ukraine, if you imply that. Trump is a russian asset and he did lift sanctions from russia just this week, alongside with ramping oil prices to the roof.
Unless you assume that russia is losing the attrition war (which is very unlikely with @lemmy.ml), your comment doesn’t make any sense.
I do not have the patience to have this stupid fight today. Ukraine is definitely a US proxy. Every president since George W Bush has been preparing for and escalating this war. It’s easy to get confused if you get distracted by the puppet show instead of watching the flow of dollars and bombs.
The war in Iran has sealed Ukraine’s fate. All the cards they had left to play have now been neutralized. It doesn’t matter how much propaganda you believe about the Ukraine war because it’s coming to a rapid conclusion
Whether or not you believe Russia’s economy was “just about to collapse” from sanctions, that is all up in smoke now
The Western armories were already running bare. Now, Ukraine will probably never receive another air defense interceptor. There won’t be any tomahawks to give even if they got some working ground launchers.
Ukraine’s European backers were already under tremendous economic strain from having the highest energy prices in the world. They are EXTREMELY exposed to this current energy shock.
The combined forces of the West were already losing before suffering this massive economic shock and gigantic military expenditure
Those three are all real factors, but I think you are exaggerating their size and importance.
The increase in oil price and softening of US sanctions will benefit the Russians, but it won’t make the war economy sustainable.
Western armories are running bare, but the same is true for the Russian ones. Both Ukraine and Russia are mostly using equipment as it’s being produced, and both Ukraine and the rest of Europe has been ramping up production capacity. I imagine you’re right that it’s worse for Ukraine to lose access to American air defense systems than it is for Russia to lose access to Iranian Shaheds.
The high energy prices are a problem in Europe, but compared to the situation in Russia (or Ukraine, for that matter) there’s nothing EXTREME about it.
The reason peace negotiations have been hopeless, is because the Ukrainians and the Russians can’t agree on where the war is headed. The Russians believe that if they just keep going, the Europeans will get bored and give up, while Ukrainians believe that they can keep going longer than the Russians because they are supported by a European economy that is not in an unsustainable “war mode”.
Who is right is up to us, and given that every single demand that the Russians have is against some pretty fundamental international law, it is in the interest of future European peace to ensure that the Ukrainians are right - and to make that as obvious as possible to the Russians so that peace negotiations become possible.
The increase in oil price and softening of US sanctions will benefit the Russians, but it won’t make the war economy sustainable.
According to who? The sanctions can’t be “on the verge” of working and also not be that important at the same time. We’re talking about DOUBLE revenue on a per-barrel basis (so far!). Sanctions work by slowly choking out the supply of dollars until an economy suffocates. A flood of new dollars DOES completely reverse years of sanctions. So unless you believe the sanctions were not working (which I do by the way) then this matters a lot.
Western armories are running bare, but the same is true for the Russian ones. Both Ukraine and Russia are mostly using equipment as it’s being produced, and both Ukraine and the rest of Europe has been ramping up production capacity.
Do you remember years ago when the Europeans themselves came out and said the Russians were outproducing the entire West in artillery shells 3-to-1? Do you think that only applies to artillery shells? The West has DEINDUSTRIALIZED after decades of neglect, outsourcing, corruption, and financialization. The energy crisis in Europe is only shifting this into high gear.
Both Ukraine and Russia are mostly using equipment as it’s being produced
What evidence is there for this? You think the Russians have only made 2 Oreshnik missles? You think they are only making a few hundred Gerans a week?
The high energy prices are a problem in Europe, but compared to the situation in Russia (or Ukraine, for that matter) there’s nothing EXTREME about it.
This is honestly laughable. Europe is dying under the weight of their own vassalage. What do you think it means to have the highest energy prices in the world? How does that effect an industrial economy? Why did Volkswagen stop production at their main plant for the first time ever? Now it’s about to get MUCH WORSE because Europe was extremely dependent on Quatari LNG. That LNG isn’t waiting for the strait to open, it’s already not being produced and liquefied, leaving a permanent gap in the world supply.
The reason peace negotiations have been hopeless, is because the Ukrainians and the Russians can’t agree on where the war is headed
Well you could say that. The West believes it’s own propaganda which has been propping up this war for 3 years when it was already lost (the writing has been on the wall since the ill-fated Zaporizhzhia counteroffensive in '23). The pattern of big huge hype about any territorial gains, trailing off into ashamed whimpers in the press, has been followed in every disastrous “media counteroffensive” since: Kursk, Pokrovsk, Kupiansk, and now Dnipropetrovsk. THE UKRAINIANS ARE CRITICALLY SHORT OF INFANTRY AND HAVE BEEN FOR YEARS. LOOK AT REPORTS FROM ANY GROUND-LEVEL COMMANDER ON THE UKR SIDE. NO AMOUNT OF PRESS-GANGED RETIREES CAN CHANGE THIS.
Who is right is up to us
Spoken like a European
every single demand that the Russians have is against some pretty fundamental international law
Was it against international law when the Banderites engaged with their war against Russian speaking civilians in the Donbass for 8 years? Do you still not know about this because of how completely the wool has been pulled over your eyes by the western media? It’s game over. The media narratives are collapsing under the weight of their own failure. This conversation doesn’t matter any more for the fate of the current war, I’m only bothering so we can all spot the patterns if and when the West attempts to do this bullshit again.
Yeah, problem is that you lot have been going on about how the war will inevitably and swiftly end in a Russian victory every day since the war started - often in the same hyperbolic way that you’re writing now (see attached image). The sources I’ve preferred to follow have been clear from the beginning that this is going to take a while, and that the outcome is not certain (aside from the fact that it will be horrible for both Russians and Ukrainians)
Was it against international law when the Banderites engaged with their war against Russian speaking civilians in the Donbass for 8 years
Civil war is not against international law, but of course that’s not quite what the war in Donbas was. Either way, you’re using a whataboutism to sidestep the point.
I don’t speak for anyone else regarding the Ukraine war. When this war started I originally favored the Ukrainian side.
Frankly, now is the time for hyperbole. The Ukrainians are still critically short of men. That has been true for years and keeps getting worse. If I was trying to be persuasive maybe I would be more circumspect but as I mentioned I don’t really care right now.
If the Ukrainians really had any chance of winning, they would not bother with media counter-offensives, wunderwaffen obsession, or absurd inflation of Russian casualties.
It definitely is not whataboutism, it’s literal cause and effect. Doing years of ethnic cleansing is casus belli.
Honestly, I wrote my comment with a questioning tone because I wasn’t sure if your original comment was being sarcastic or something. I guess people don’t understand that this Iran war is much more serious than Vietnam and Afghanistan put together, on top of the Ukraine war still ongoing.
If the strait isn’t open in the next few months, we could be seeing outbreaks of global starvation unlike anything seen in decades. That’s just the beginning and I wish I was exaggerating
The line has already been drawn. The only meaningful wildcards are the Turks and the Egyptians. The question you should be asking is how long until the gulf monarchies run out of staple grain? That hits much sooner than the global fertilizer crisis, we won’t feel the business end of that until harvest season in the northern hemisphere
It’d probably play out as Iran, China, Russia (eventually North Korea) v. US, Israel - then all the dick swinging and pissing contest and empty threats would push UK, France and Germany in but they’d just be hoping US would be doing all the heavy lifting because honestly they want to be the “heroes” anyway so why not. Then some bickering and hootin and hollering would happen between Russia, China and US and nuclear threats begin. It’d likely be a stalemate as it’d be considered MAD (mutually assured destruction) but who knows with these crazy assholes.
There’s a few of tracks leading to this actually. You got cracks in old alliances forming, a mostly failed attempt at revanchism from Russia and the USA getting it’s fingers stuck in a mouse trap, and many many more geopolitical factors that heighten tension between states. Then on another track, you have a worsening climate situation that is MUCH more serious than most western leaders are daring to admit, this ties back to the first as states will begin to take drastic efforts to control worsening conditions. Finally there has been a technological shift in a variety of ways, drones of course. Along that same vein, China has quietly been catching up to the US in terms of military tech, this isn’t as flashy but it is monumentous.
The global empire of capital is trapped in two losing wars of attrition and keeps on desperately escalating in both cases?
USA is not with Ukraine, if you imply that. Trump is a russian asset and he did lift sanctions from russia just this week, alongside with ramping oil prices to the roof.
Unless you assume that russia is losing the attrition war (which is very unlikely with @lemmy.ml), your comment doesn’t make any sense.
I do not have the patience to have this stupid fight today. Ukraine is definitely a US proxy. Every president since George W Bush has been preparing for and escalating this war. It’s easy to get confused if you get distracted by the puppet show instead of watching the flow of dollars and bombs.
The war in Iran has sealed Ukraine’s fate. All the cards they had left to play have now been neutralized. It doesn’t matter how much propaganda you believe about the Ukraine war because it’s coming to a rapid conclusion
Alright, I’ll bite. How does the war with Iran “seal Ukraine’s fate”?
3 factors:
The combined forces of the West were already losing before suffering this massive economic shock and gigantic military expenditure
Those three are all real factors, but I think you are exaggerating their size and importance.
The increase in oil price and softening of US sanctions will benefit the Russians, but it won’t make the war economy sustainable.
Western armories are running bare, but the same is true for the Russian ones. Both Ukraine and Russia are mostly using equipment as it’s being produced, and both Ukraine and the rest of Europe has been ramping up production capacity. I imagine you’re right that it’s worse for Ukraine to lose access to American air defense systems than it is for Russia to lose access to Iranian Shaheds.
The high energy prices are a problem in Europe, but compared to the situation in Russia (or Ukraine, for that matter) there’s nothing EXTREME about it.
The reason peace negotiations have been hopeless, is because the Ukrainians and the Russians can’t agree on where the war is headed. The Russians believe that if they just keep going, the Europeans will get bored and give up, while Ukrainians believe that they can keep going longer than the Russians because they are supported by a European economy that is not in an unsustainable “war mode”.
Who is right is up to us, and given that every single demand that the Russians have is against some pretty fundamental international law, it is in the interest of future European peace to ensure that the Ukrainians are right - and to make that as obvious as possible to the Russians so that peace negotiations become possible.
New day, new patience apparently.
According to who? The sanctions can’t be “on the verge” of working and also not be that important at the same time. We’re talking about DOUBLE revenue on a per-barrel basis (so far!). Sanctions work by slowly choking out the supply of dollars until an economy suffocates. A flood of new dollars DOES completely reverse years of sanctions. So unless you believe the sanctions were not working (which I do by the way) then this matters a lot.
Do you remember years ago when the Europeans themselves came out and said the Russians were outproducing the entire West in artillery shells 3-to-1? Do you think that only applies to artillery shells? The West has DEINDUSTRIALIZED after decades of neglect, outsourcing, corruption, and financialization. The energy crisis in Europe is only shifting this into high gear.
What evidence is there for this? You think the Russians have only made 2 Oreshnik missles? You think they are only making a few hundred Gerans a week?
This is honestly laughable. Europe is dying under the weight of their own vassalage. What do you think it means to have the highest energy prices in the world? How does that effect an industrial economy? Why did Volkswagen stop production at their main plant for the first time ever? Now it’s about to get MUCH WORSE because Europe was extremely dependent on Quatari LNG. That LNG isn’t waiting for the strait to open, it’s already not being produced and liquefied, leaving a permanent gap in the world supply.
Well you could say that. The West believes it’s own propaganda which has been propping up this war for 3 years when it was already lost (the writing has been on the wall since the ill-fated Zaporizhzhia counteroffensive in '23). The pattern of big huge hype about any territorial gains, trailing off into ashamed whimpers in the press, has been followed in every disastrous “media counteroffensive” since: Kursk, Pokrovsk, Kupiansk, and now Dnipropetrovsk. THE UKRAINIANS ARE CRITICALLY SHORT OF INFANTRY AND HAVE BEEN FOR YEARS. LOOK AT REPORTS FROM ANY GROUND-LEVEL COMMANDER ON THE UKR SIDE. NO AMOUNT OF PRESS-GANGED RETIREES CAN CHANGE THIS.
Spoken like a European
Was it against international law when the Banderites engaged with their war against Russian speaking civilians in the Donbass for 8 years? Do you still not know about this because of how completely the wool has been pulled over your eyes by the western media? It’s game over. The media narratives are collapsing under the weight of their own failure. This conversation doesn’t matter any more for the fate of the current war, I’m only bothering so we can all spot the patterns if and when the West attempts to do this bullshit again.
Yeah, problem is that you lot have been going on about how the war will inevitably and swiftly end in a Russian victory every day since the war started - often in the same hyperbolic way that you’re writing now (see attached image). The sources I’ve preferred to follow have been clear from the beginning that this is going to take a while, and that the outcome is not certain (aside from the fact that it will be horrible for both Russians and Ukrainians)
Civil war is not against international law, but of course that’s not quite what the war in Donbas was. Either way, you’re using a whataboutism to sidestep the point.
I don’t speak for anyone else regarding the Ukraine war. When this war started I originally favored the Ukrainian side.
Frankly, now is the time for hyperbole. The Ukrainians are still critically short of men. That has been true for years and keeps getting worse. If I was trying to be persuasive maybe I would be more circumspect but as I mentioned I don’t really care right now.
If the Ukrainians really had any chance of winning, they would not bother with media counter-offensives, wunderwaffen obsession, or absurd inflation of Russian casualties.
It definitely is not whataboutism, it’s literal cause and effect. Doing years of ethnic cleansing is casus belli.
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Honestly, I wrote my comment with a questioning tone because I wasn’t sure if your original comment was being sarcastic or something. I guess people don’t understand that this Iran war is much more serious than Vietnam and Afghanistan put together, on top of the Ukraine war still ongoing.
If the strait isn’t open in the next few months, we could be seeing outbreaks of global starvation unlike anything seen in decades. That’s just the beginning and I wish I was exaggerating
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The line has already been drawn. The only meaningful wildcards are the Turks and the Egyptians. The question you should be asking is how long until the gulf monarchies run out of staple grain? That hits much sooner than the global fertilizer crisis, we won’t feel the business end of that until harvest season in the northern hemisphere
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Now you’re starting to get the gravity of the situation
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You strike me as a hasbara troll, not someone who’s actually depressed. I’m not good at talking people out of suicide anyways.
If you really are thinking of ending your life, talk about it with a trusted friend instead of some assholes on the internet like myself
It’d probably play out as Iran, China, Russia (eventually North Korea) v. US, Israel - then all the dick swinging and pissing contest and empty threats would push UK, France and Germany in but they’d just be hoping US would be doing all the heavy lifting because honestly they want to be the “heroes” anyway so why not. Then some bickering and hootin and hollering would happen between Russia, China and US and nuclear threats begin. It’d likely be a stalemate as it’d be considered MAD (mutually assured destruction) but who knows with these crazy assholes.
There’s a few of tracks leading to this actually. You got cracks in old alliances forming, a mostly failed attempt at revanchism from Russia and the USA getting it’s fingers stuck in a mouse trap, and many many more geopolitical factors that heighten tension between states. Then on another track, you have a worsening climate situation that is MUCH more serious than most western leaders are daring to admit, this ties back to the first as states will begin to take drastic efforts to control worsening conditions. Finally there has been a technological shift in a variety of ways, drones of course. Along that same vein, China has quietly been catching up to the US in terms of military tech, this isn’t as flashy but it is monumentous.