On 27 December last year, astronomers using the ATLAS survey telescope in Chile discovered a small asteroid moving away from Earth. Follow-up observations have revealed that the asteroid, 2024 YR4, is on a path that might lead to a collision with our planet on 22 December 2032.
What does that mean for a potential impact? Well, it would depend on exactly what the asteroid is made of.
The most likely scenario is that the asteroid is a rocky pile of rubble. If that turns out to be the case, then the impact would be very similar to the Tunguska event in 1908.
The asteroid would detonate in the atmosphere, with a shockwave blasting Earth’s surface as a result. The Tunguska impact was a “city killer” type event, leveling forest across a city-sized patch of land.
A less likely possibility is that the asteroid is made of metal. Based on its orbit around the sun, this seems unlikely—but we can’t rule it out.
In that case, the asteroid would make it through the atmosphere intact, and crash into Earth’s surface. If it hit on the land, it would carve out a new impact crater, probably more than a kilometer across and a couple of hundred meters deep—something similar to Meteor Crater in Arizona.
Again, this would be quite spectacular for the region around the impact—but that would be about it
Not to mention there’s only a 1.3% chance it actually collides with Earth.
So you’re telling me there’s a chance!
Quote from article;
What does that mean for a potential impact? Well, it would depend on exactly what the asteroid is made of.
The most likely scenario is that the asteroid is a rocky pile of rubble. If that turns out to be the case, then the impact would be very similar to the Tunguska event in 1908.
The asteroid would detonate in the atmosphere, with a shockwave blasting Earth’s surface as a result. The Tunguska impact was a “city killer” type event, leveling forest across a city-sized patch of land.
A less likely possibility is that the asteroid is made of metal. Based on its orbit around the sun, this seems unlikely—but we can’t rule it out.
In that case, the asteroid would make it through the atmosphere intact, and crash into Earth’s surface. If it hit on the land, it would carve out a new impact crater, probably more than a kilometer across and a couple of hundred meters deep—something similar to Meteor Crater in Arizona.
Again, this would be quite spectacular for the region around the impact—but that would be about it