Astronomers have spied an asteroid that may be heading for Earth: What we know so far
phys.org
On 27 December last year, astronomers using the ATLAS survey telescope in Chile discovered a small asteroid moving away from Earth. Follow-up observations have revealed that the asteroid, 2024 YR4, is on a path that might lead to a collision with our planet on 22 December 2032.
  • Nougat@fedia.io
    37·
    3 days ago

    1 in 77 chance, December 2032.

    Is there anything we can do to increase that chance, and make it happen sooner?

    • Kyrgizion@lemmy.world
      5·
      3 days ago

      In April 2029 Apophis will also make a swing-by. No collision predicted, but still. Something could knock it slightly off course if we’re lucky.

    • Rhaedas@fedia.io
      2·
      3 days ago

      If we had the ability to direct it away, we could also improve the odds of hitting. Can’t make it get here faster though, either way.

        • Rhaedas@fedia.io
          3·
          3 days ago

          Sure. By a few minutes maybe. I won’t get into the logistics of trying to set off a controlled directional explosion on a huge rock that’s likely rotating. Keep in mind also that getting it here even a minute faster means it has to change its orbit, because Earth won’t be in the original impact zone yet.

          • FundMECFSResearch@lemmy.blahaj.zone
            4·
            3 days ago

            Quote from article;

            What does that mean for a potential impact? Well, it would depend on exactly what the asteroid is made of.

            The most likely scenario is that the asteroid is a rocky pile of rubble. If that turns out to be the case, then the impact would be very similar to the Tunguska event in 1908.

            The asteroid would detonate in the atmosphere, with a shockwave blasting Earth’s surface as a result. The Tunguska impact was a “city killer” type event, leveling forest across a city-sized patch of land.

            A less likely possibility is that the asteroid is made of metal. Based on its orbit around the sun, this seems unlikely—but we can’t rule it out.

            In that case, the asteroid would make it through the atmosphere intact, and crash into Earth’s surface. If it hit on the land, it would carve out a new impact crater, probably more than a kilometer across and a couple of hundred meters deep—something similar to Meteor Crater in Arizona.

            Again, this would be quite spectacular for the region around the impact—but that would be about it

    • athairmor@lemmy.world
      4·
      3 days ago

      With the way things are going I expect that right before it hits: the USA will elect a stable and progressive government; the UK will rejoin the EU; Northern Ireland will reunite with the Republic of Ireland; Ukraine will expel the Russian army; Russia will oust Putin and become more open and progressive; Israel and Palestine peacefully resolve their conflicts; Arab states democratize liberally; China recognizes Taiwan’s independence; etc., etc.