2.5 is on the ‘optimistic’ side of things, but not unreasonable. I check the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) once or twice a year, I think they summarize current projections pretty well. Our current “policies & action” is around 2.7 or 2.8 degrees. Which would be really bad.
I’m not completely sure but I think the “1.5” number is regarding a long-term trend, not one portion of one year. We’re at around 1.2 now according to the CAT thermometer (select Global -> The CAT Thermometer). You can look at specific countries like the USA as well.
Most of the world wants to be at net zero by 2050, which means if they take these pledges and policies seriously they have to start to cut emissions right now. We also can see multiple countries making real progress in reducing emissions. Solar is already the fastest growing form of energy production ever just ahead of wind. A good number of countries also have passed laws or signed agreements to phase out combustion engine vehicles Also all continents, but Africa have a below replacment total fertility rate today. By 2050 a lot of regions will start to loose population.
Just to say it 2050 is in only 27 years.
As for real progress:
Coal consumption is done in many countries all over the world. At this point China is responsible for over half the worlds coal consumption. Given how much renewable generation China is installing, the only thing needed is a proper economic crisis to slow down Chinas electricity consumption and coal drops by a lot.
Oil consumption just say a big dip due to covid, but it recovered. At the same time there is a drop in new car sales in all of the G7 countries besides Germany and electric cars are taking over. Also the oil price is high again.
Gas just saw one of the biggest market shocks ever with the Ukraine war. EU demand fell a lot and the purchase of a lot of LNG by the EU from other countries created a massive market shock across the world. However demand is propably still rising.
Didn’t we already hit 1.5 this year? I’m sure I saw artcles here about this recently, like within the last week recently.
Hang on I’m going to go look.
Ok yeah so after a quick search, I think what I saw was this bbc article about us hitting 1.5c warming for a third of 2023 so far.
I’m going to keep looking though, I don’t have much faith in the beeb these days.
2100!?! Did Shell or Exxon write this? Who the fuck is pulling these wildly optimistic fantasy scenarios out of their asses?
We’ll be at 1.5 within the next several years, and 2.5 probably by 2050.
2.5 is on the ‘optimistic’ side of things, but not unreasonable. I check the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) once or twice a year, I think they summarize current projections pretty well. Our current “policies & action” is around 2.7 or 2.8 degrees. Which would be really bad.
https://climateactiontracker.org/global/temperatures/
I’m not completely sure but I think the “1.5” number is regarding a long-term trend, not one portion of one year. We’re at around 1.2 now according to the CAT thermometer (select Global -> The CAT Thermometer). You can look at specific countries like the USA as well.
Most of the world wants to be at net zero by 2050, which means if they take these pledges and policies seriously they have to start to cut emissions right now. We also can see multiple countries making real progress in reducing emissions. Solar is already the fastest growing form of energy production ever just ahead of wind. A good number of countries also have passed laws or signed agreements to phase out combustion engine vehicles Also all continents, but Africa have a below replacment total fertility rate today. By 2050 a lot of regions will start to loose population.
Just to say it 2050 is in only 27 years.
As for real progress:
Didn’t we already hit 1.5 this year? I’m sure I saw artcles here about this recently, like within the last week recently.
Hang on I’m going to go look.
Ok yeah so after a quick search, I think what I saw was this bbc article about us hitting 1.5c warming for a third of 2023 so far.
I’m going to keep looking though, I don’t have much faith in the beeb these days.
We’re already at 1.5, I think we’re fucked. And long before 2100, more like 2050 lol