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Cake day: July 21st, 2023

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  • Ttereal tellers is ttattElonkows nothing about AI. Anyone involved in the field knows all of the big names because we read their papers, listen to their lectures, and talk about their models. He then goes on to be dismissive of work he’s not even close to understanding. It’s blatant ignorance, and Elon is used to just being able to power through his ignorance by either BSing his way past people who know no more than him or firing anyone who is actually qualified and as a result disagrees with him.


  • It’s not an unpopular opinion but it might be a tankie shitpost. I just really fucking wish people would explain their reasoning rather than just blatting out a stupid idea. This one isn’t stupid, per se, but if you want actual feedback you should say why you hold this opinion so people can tell you where they agree and disagree and it’s not just a downvote fest.

    Having said that, this is the least stupid of a series of incredibly vapid posts, so I’m writing a response.

    Yes, there is a supply/demand relationship. Let’s say you make 50 widgets a year and sell them for a dollar. Then a new use comes out for them, and people are willing to pay two dollars (this is actually the story behind the kong dog toy coming from a VW part). So now you can increase production, but eventually you’ll run out of customers, so you can reduce the price to $1.50, and so on. You can see this happening in real time in commodities markets, where oil producers will cut output to drive up prices, or increase it to drive them down (eg if they want to reduce oil production in other countries).

    Where you’re not wrong is that it’s a highly idealized model, like a lot of basic economics. It works best with commodities, but we’ve seen it with video cards, hard drives, cars, and so on. However, the more complex the market, the more factors beyond supply and demand are involved. There are things like sticky prices, information disparity (look up a paper called “A Market for Lemons”), and biases like those that won experimental psychologist Daniel Kahneman the Nobel prize in economics.


  • Because they make more money than they’re paying in fines. They also may be making more money violating laws than they’re paying in fines, but that’s how they’ll have to determine how they conduct business.

    Basically - and this is mostly for tech but I suspect it applies to other markets - the US is the single largest market. “Europe” is second, depending on how you want to define it, but even just the EU is a very big market. China is big and growing, and most companies are trying their best to keep growth there. Asia collectively could be huge, but the attempts to collectivize Asia have not worked out well, historically speaking.

    But the takeaway is that a company will exit s market if it’s losing money, generally speaking. No one is sacrificing earnings to make sure Belgians have access to the latest phones out of the goodness of their hearts.


  • I think they also have an EMP effect that can damage ship/sat electronics.

    But, like the internet, a sub is a series of tubes. You have a big horizontal tube that the people and the engine lives in, and you have vertical ones where the things that blow up cities live.

    I mean, there are optional smaller horizontal tubes, but I feel like if you’re going to launch a sub into space it really ought to be one of the big ones. Maybe it’s just a Freudian thing.


  • I’m going to assume that OP and most people posting here know the difference between trans and drag. Some drag queens are trans, most are LGBT, some are straight. But trans women are women.

    Trans persons - at least many of them - mostly want to pass and have their identity accepted. This goes for trans men and trans women. And most people would like to be seen as attractive.

    The truth is though that you might just be into trans women. There’s nothing wrong with that per se, but the community is generally aware of and quite wary of “chasers.” Those are people that fetishize trans persons.

    The difference between being attracted to trans women and being a chaser is whether you see the person as an individual or as a class. Think about white guys who are really into Asian women or black men. On the one hand, it’s fine to have different tastes and perceptions of beauty. The fetishization occurs when the individuality of the person becomes less important than the fetishized quality.


  • I want to be clear. I do not blame Ghana’s people for these laws. I do not blame Africans for the many nations that have enacted similar laws.

    Christian church organizations, acting under the rubric of evangelical outreach or even more offensively charitable giving have backed religious and political leaders with LGBT-phobic agendas up to and including execution for being gay. Of course they’re going to do it - they get power and money for doing so.

    The US needs to extend the Logan Act to apply to these situations and make the crime a felony that can lead to the arrest of the people involved and the legal dissolution of the organizations.


  • Fascism. It’s fascism.

    Economic and social collapse dislocates a lot of people. It dislocates people who think they shouldn’t be dislocated, because they played by the rules. They go to church, they had a job, they’re patriotic to their best understanding of the word.

    Then, in their minds, something must have changed. It might be the immigrants, or the Jews, or the gays, or weirdly drag queens for some reason this time around. Then someone comes along who validates them as victims and promises a return to their historical glory days.

    The last paroxysm is the election or ascendency of a far right populist who elevates that narrative. They promise to restore national pride and return to traditional values, and to return the nation to its roots which had made it strong and put them on top.

    It’s happened multiple times around the world, and there are a lot of books and articles on how and why it happens.




  • Yeah, this was an easy one to call. It’s repeated in other countries as well.

    One other factor that they don’t mention is that the surge in street opioids corresponded to a crackdown on doctors writing opioid prescriptions. I saw this coming when I was doing policy analysis and looking at unintended consequences in complex systems. I don’t remember much about what degree of a surge we saw in prescriptions, but I do remember all of those “pill mill” headlines. That always struck me as a pretty manufactured crisis - but even if not, the crackdown certainly didn’t improve the situation.




  • I’m a manager at a FAANG and have been involved in tech and scientific research for commercial, governmental, and military applications for about 35 years now, and have been through a lot of different careers in the course of things.

    First - and I really don’t want to come off like a dick here - you’re two years in. Some people take off, and others stay at the same level for a decade or more. I am the absolute last person to argue that we live in a meritocracy - it’s a combination of the luck of landing with the right group on the right projects - but there’s also something to be said about tenacity in making yourself heard or moving on. You can’t know a whole lot with two years of experience. When I hire someone, I expect to hold their hand for six months and gradually turn more responsibility over as they develop both their technical and personal/project skills.

    That said, if you really hate it, it’s probably time to move on. If you’re looking to move into a PM style role, make sure that you have an idea of what that all involves, and make sure you know the career path - even if the current offer pays more, PMs in my experience cap out at a lower level for compensation than engineers. Getting a $10k bump might seem like you’re moving up, but a) it doesn’t sound like you’re comparing it to other engineering offers and b) we’re in a down market and I’d be hesitant to advise anyone to make a jump right now if their current position is secure. Historically speaking, I’m expecting demand to start to climb back to high levels in the next 1-2 years.

    Honestly, it just sounds like your job sucks. I have regularly had students, interns, and mentees in my career because that’s important to me. One thing I regularly tell people is that if there’s something that they choose to read about rather than watching Netflix on a Saturday, that’s something they should be considering doing for a living. Obviously that doesn’t cover Harry Potter, but if you’re reading about ants or neural networks or Bayesian models or software design patterns, that’s a pretty good hint as to where you should be steering. If you’d rather work on space systems, or weapons, or games, or robots, or LLMs, or whatever - you can slide over with side and hobby projects. If you’re too depressed to even do that, take the other job. I’d rather hire a person who quit their job to drive for Uber while they worked on their own AI project than someone who was a full stack engineer at a startup that went under.

    Anyway, that’s my advice. Let me know if I can clarify anything.


  • I mean, okay, I do get that. Just to set expectations, I am a gnostic atheist, meaning i actively and positively disbelieve in any and all gods. I’m not saying that we can’t know that no gods exist, I’m taking the position that it’s intellectually honest to stake the claim that no gods exist. I was raised a conservative Catholic with a full Catholic education and family members who entered the clergy, and I also did an in depth study of Theravada Buddhism including a two year sabbatical where I studied and meditated six to eight hours a day.

    I’m contrasting this approach with the “hell is other people” afterlife story of Sartre where we spend eternity surrounded by other people who are as miserable as we are, and the reason we find them miserable is because we are ourselves so miserable. Obviously, he takes a few more words to get there, but that’s the basic point. The horror he portrays is core to the existential threat of The Other - the person who we define ourselves through their definitions of us, but whom we can never know just as they can never really know us. That’s one that can take a lot of time to get through.

    Someone else mentioned the story The Egg. I can’t remember the author of that one, but I randomly ran across it years ago from a random internet mention, and it struck me as one of the most kind and human afterlife stories I’ve ever read.

    I read this story as being very much in line with very many of the well established religions in the old world. I could see it as a Buddhist story (which is how I interpreted The Egg), but I see it as being entirely compatible, at least as metaphor, with most eastern religions and philosophies. I think you might be over-generalizing from a particularly American approach to fundamentalist sects of Protestant Christianity to how people throughout history and around the world have approached religion.

    I have to tell you that Jews will generally refrain from using the term “Judeo-Christian.” It basically comes off as if someone were referring to “Christo-Islamism.” Where Christians see continuity, Jews see at best a retcon that’s appropriating the literal god of the Jews. Of course, the religion of historical Israel lead to what we call Judaism today, but was polytheistic and generally the same as other local regional religions. I’d still argue that the Abrahamic religions (which I think is a better catch-all term) are not in general monotheistic, except for some sects like some types of Unitarians.

    In any case, I think this is an interesting core, but I see the message as redemptive. I see it as far more redemptive than the one shot and then eternal and infinite torture that some Abrahamic religions hypothesize.

    Again, I’m a hardcore atheist and materialist. I think that when I do breathe my last breath - which could happen tonight or in 20 years - what will survive of me is the “me” that I’ve left in other people. It might be because I helped them, or I’ve hurt them. It might be because I’ve saved their lives or because I’ve indirectly caused the death of their friends and family. It might be students and colleagues I’ve inspired or ones who would burn me in effigy if they cared that much. That, plus the money and crap, is what I will be when my consciousness ceases.

    Another (I believe again that this is French) existentialist koan (if you will) is that a spirit appears to you on your deathbed and tells to that you will relive your entire life exactly the same as your last one, and does that make the spirit an angel or a devil.

    In any case, what I’m saying is that it’s a good idea that would probably benefit from being expanded (but read The Egg first so you don’t just accidentally repeat it). I just don’t see it as disturbing, as the people to whom it finds resonance will feel comforted and to those who have more fundamentalist positions would take the dismissive point of view that I have when I read a Chick Tract.


  • I mean, it’s pretty far from the best MCM I’ve ever seen, but the great room is pretty nice. The bedrooms really would have benefitted from floor to ceiling windows and the bathrooms are actively hideous. Not sure I’d want to live in Peoria either, but the price is reasonable.

    Also as an aside, I don’t think you can count 1960s MCMs as McMansions. I associate the term with those houses built in the mid-2000s that are 6500 sq ft with four car garages but are built so cheaply that the walls shake if someone slams the front door.




  • Please keep in mind that these books should be acceptable by the school and approachable by students who would be unlikely to accept or read very progressive material, so themes that strongly (just strongly) contradict Western narratives should be avoided.

    This made me hesitate, but then I decided that you’re more than capable of reading a summary or skimming a book and deciding whether or not it makes a fit.

    Let me start with some obvious ones:

    • Orientalism by Edward Said

    • A People’s History of the United States by Howard Zinn

    • 90% of Chomsky’s work

    • 21 Things They Don’t Teach You About Capitalism by Ha-Joon Chang. Chang is an economist who I believe studied under the Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz. They both research the economies of developing countries, with Chang having a specialization in South Korea. He accused developed countries of “kicking away the ladder” when they force the Washington Consensus on developing economies while having violated those norms as their own economies developed.

    Guns, Germs, and Steel by Jared Diamond - There’s a lot wrong with the book but it does make for an effective deconstruction of the myth of western cultural superiority by proposing a physical/geographical explanation.

    Better than GGS would be any book by David Graeber, who for my money was the greatest anthropologist of our time and who brings a radical preconception of some of the most treasured but false narratives in the development of western history and capitalism. Debt is his most famous work, I think, but I’d especially recommend The Dawn of Everything.

    Che Guevara by Jon Lee Anderson - the best bio of Che that I’ve read, but it’s really, really long. Maybe just watch Motorcycle Diaries and Even The Rain (which is about modern and even liberal colonialism but not Che).

    Anything about James Baldwin

    The Social Conquest of the Earth by EO Wilson. Wilson was the biologist who founded the field of sociobiology and who towards the end of his career came to the conclusion that its because humans exhibit the highest levels of cooperation (eusociality) that we’ve come to dominate the planet, for better and for worse.

    I realize that a lot of these are US centric, and I’ve left out virtually everything on LGBT history and culture, but I think this might be a good start.


  • That’s not entirely true. Gerrymandering can affect statewide elections in two ways.

    The first is turnout suppression. If voters feel that their votes do not matter (for instance, if they constantly end up voting for local/district positions that they “lose”), they’re less likely to vote. That’s why people interested in vote suppression make such frequent use of the “both sides” memes. This is part of a larger effort that includes ID laws, registration restrictions, and disallowing vote by mail.

    Second is resource restrictions based on districts. I know that in both TX and AZ there have been around-the-block lines with multi-hour waits to vote in some districts, while others were basically walk in and walk out. Yes, high density populations will require more resources than low density ones, but you generally don’t see state legislatures passing bills to remove polling places from low density areas so that rural voters are required to drive for hours to get to the closest urban polling place.


  • I have a few honest questions for anyone who supports this kind of legislation.

    First, what problem specifically is this trying to address? Have teen pregnancies gone up since the advent of kids being able to access porn on the internet? Kids with STDs? Sexual assaults on children? What specific metric has changed that makes this kind of legislation a priority right now? Is there a model that shows a correlation between the behaviors this legislation intends to address and the social ills you believe are associated with it?

    Second is the related question of what metrics you think will improve with the introduction of this legislation? How long do you think it will take for that change to come about? If it does not, would you support removing this legislation?

    Third, if a social ill were to be associated as per the above with online content, would you support similar legislation to regulate access (eg, if hate speech or LGBT-phobia posted online were to show a positive correlation with intolerance or violence), would you require online services to monitor access to sites hosting that kind of content, such as requiring a government issued ID to be kept on record and associated with specific user accounts?